The View from the Edge of the Universe

I Told You So....Many Times!

I discovered this little blurb in Artnet's article about the super booming art market:

"Technological advances -- notably the internet -- have made the art market more liquid and more efficient than ever before. Once focused largely to the U.S. and Europe, the art market has spread like wildfire into Latin America, China, India and the Middle East. The result is an art boom that -- dare we say it, even in folly? -- might never quit."

If you read my blog, this comment will sound awfully familiar.

Just watch, there will be an old-school art dealer or consultant who soon will admit that the private art club that they've been clinging to now has a much broader membership. 

Auction Price Predictor

So the fall auctions are winding up and guess what?  Everything sold for lots of money.  More than I can afford.  People aren't talking about a bubble anymore. 

Yet another article in the New York Times will have art world insiders bristling, at least those who are clinging to the idea that their insider knowledge still retains the same indispensable cachet with collectors.  It seems that David W. Galenson an economics professor at the University of Chicago has done a study which concludes that the most valuable of an artist's works are either done very early in his or her career or very late.  In his book, Old Masters and Young Geniuses, Galenson spends 252 pages proving his point.

While you are picking up Galenson's book, check out Collecting Contemporary by Adam Lindeman another recent release that's full of interesting info. 

Ooh...That Stings a Little

For those of you who follow my blog, you know that I've gone on and on and on and on about the robust art market and have frequently hypothesized that the market expansion is somewhat due to the huge amount data available to every rank and file collector on the planet. 
Last Sunday's New York Times contained a very entertaining primer on bidding and buying at auction.
The article points out how auction data sites like art price and artnet are proving collectors with a wealth of information at the click of a mouse that only 10 years ago was difficult and often very expensive to obtain.

Then this:

"  But the art dealer Josh Baer, whose subscription-only newsletter, Baer Faxt, reports on the inner dealings of the art world, is skeptical of this data-driven “illusion of transparency.” Database users focus too much on precedent, he says, and ignore other factors, like the condition of that particular piece. “They think they have so much more information, when in fact they’re over-informed but undereducated.”  "

Presumably Mr. Baer's $149-a-year newsletter-by-email will take care of the undereducated part. 

The big auction houses seem to know better.  With every passing year, they are becoming more and more adept at accurately and quickly communicating all available data to a potential collector.  You can get condition reports with the click of a mouse.  Mr. Baer may find himself comfortably snuggled into the art world insider's lounge, but the young collectors of today become the power players of tomorrow and these new players have always lived their life in front of some kind of glowing monitor and will continue to do so.

Despite all my defensiveness, after nearly two decades of collecting I generally find myself wanting to see the work in person before I buy, so I signed up for the free sample of Mr. Baer's newsletter.  I'm sure he knows a thing or fifty that I don't!

More on Investing in Art

My friend Uri turned me onto this thorough and link-ridden article about investing in art on Slate.

Gursky's 99 Cent sells for $2.26M

Andreas Gursky's 99 cent, sold lat night a Sotheby's for $2,256,000 not quite supassing the $2.9M record set only months earlier by Ed Steichen. but an impressive showing none the less.  The right Gurskys are still commanding the big bucks. 

2006 Spring Photo Auctions - My Contemporary Picks - The Results

Picking winners at auction has latley become like shooting fish in a barrell, but I suppose I did a little better than average. Here's the results:

Sothebys:
Joe Sternfeld's Mclean, Virginia Estimated at $12-$18K sold for $28,800
The example for sale at Christie's here estimated at $20-$30K sold for $96,000 (size matters)
Peter Beard's Maureen Gallagher... Estimated at $70-$100K. sold for $156,000

Christie's:
William Eggleston's Morton Mississippi estimated at $40-$60K sold for $72,000
Richard Misrach's Hale-Bopp... estimated at $18-$22K sold for $20,400
Nic Nicosia's Real Pictures #11 estimated at $2-$3K sold for $6,000
Thomas Joshua Cooper's Border Crossings  estimated at $1500-$2K for two prints sold for $4,800
John Coplans' Self Portrait estimated at $18-$22K sold for $12,000  I guess people don't like pictures of a man's hairy back.  Who'da thunk?
Carrie Mae Weems From Here... estimated at $4-$6K sold for $25,200.
Stan Douglas' Michigan Theater Balcony estimated at $1500-$2K sold for $7,200.
Rosemary Laing Flight Research #5 estimated at $4-$6K sold for $14,400.

Phillips:
William Eggleston's Near Minter City.. estimated at $20-$30K sold for $69,600
Andreas Gursky's Syring estimated at $8-$12K sold for $7,350 (no I wasn't the winner) By the way, Gurky's market is looking real soft.  99 cent may get passed on which would officially mark the end of Gursky mania.
Candida Hofer's Museum für Angewandte... estimated at $4-$6K sold for $7,200
Vanessa Beecroft's VB42 estimated at $20-$30K sold for $19,200
Philip-Lorca Dicorcia's Brian estimated at $25-$35K sold for $31,200 P-LD's "Streetworks" series performed strongly this time around after many years of stodgy results.

Picking winners at auction has latley become like shooting fish in a barrell, but I suppose I did a little better than average. Here's the results:

Sothebys:
Joe Sternfeld's Mclean, Virginia Estimated at $12-$18K sold for $28,800
The example for sale at Christie's here estimated at $20-$30K sold for $96,000 (size matters)
Peter Beard's Maureen Gallagher... Estimated at $70-$100K. sold for $156,000

Christie's:
William Eggleston's Morton Mississippi estimated at $40-$60K sold for $72,000
Richard Misrach's Hale-Bopp... estimated at $18-$22K sold for $20,400
Nic Nicosia's Real Pictures #11 estimated at $2-$3K sold for $6,000
Thomas Joshua Cooper's Border Crossings  estimated at $1500-$2K for two prints sold for $4,800
John Coplans' Self Portrait estimated at $18-$22K sold for $12,000  I guess people don't like pictures of a man's hairy back.  Who'da thunk?
Carrie Mae Weems From Here... estimated at $4-$6K sold for $25,200.
Stan Douglas' Michigan Theater Balcony estimated at $1500-$2K sold for $7,200.
Rosemary Laing Flight Research #5 estimated at $4-$6K sold for $14,400.

Phillips:
William Eggleston's Near Minter City.. estimated at $20-$30K sold for $69,600
Andreas Gursky's Syring estimated at $8-$12K sold for $7,350 (no I wasn't the winner) By the way, Gurky's market is looking real soft.  99 cent may get passed on which would officially mark the end of Gursky mania.
Candida Hofer's Museum für Angewandte... estimated at $4-$6K sold for $7,200
Vanessa Beecroft's VB42 estimated at $20-$30K sold for $19,200
Philip-Lorca Dicorcia's Brian estimated at $25-$35K sold for $31,200 P-LD's "Streetworks" series performed strongly this time around after many years of stodgy results.

2006 Spring Photo Auctions - My Contemporary Picks

The spring photo auctions descend on NYC next week.  I've pored through the catalogs and picked my top contemporary (post 1970) lots.  I do the work so you don't have to!

Sotheby's
Sotheby's has a decidedly non-contemporary sale: only 10 or 20% of the lots were created after 1970 and from those pieces there are only two worth considering:
Joe Sternfeld's Mclean, Virginia  Estimated at $12-$18K, this is one of Sternfeld's iconic images and  the estimate is in line with Sternfelds retail prices. There's another example for sale at Christie's here estimated at $20-$30K.
Peter Beard's Maureen Gallagher... Estimate $70-$100K.  This piece sold last year for just under $100K so I expect a final price in excess of the high estimate.

Christie's
Christie's is having an evening sale this year - okay its at 5pm so lets call it a late afternoon sale - which features the cream of their crop.  There's lots to like (and not all in the evening sale):
William Eggleston's Morton Mississippi estimated at $40-$60K.  Christie's has several very good Egglestons for sale.  This one is probably the best.  The price may reach $100K.
Richard Misrach's Hale-Bopp... estimated at $18-$22K - Misrach's sky pictures are among his most conceptually compelling.  It will be interesting to see if the estimate holds up though.
Nic Nicosia's Real Pictures #11 estimated at $2-$3K. Not a famous photographer, but arguably his most famous picture.
Thomas Joshua Cooper's Border Crossings  estimated at $1500-$2K for two prints...yeah right.  If these sell for a penny less than $5K I'll be surprised.
John Coplans' Self Portrait  estimated at $18-$22K.  Easily the best of his "Body" series.  Plus, its a photo of a man's hairy back.  Who doesn't love that?
Carrie Mae Weems From Here... estimated at $4-$6K.  A beautiful, complex and politically pointed image from one of the most underrated artists working today.
Stan Douglas' Michigan Theater Balcony estimated at $1500-$2K.  Please see Thomas Joshua Cooper, above.
Rosemary Laing Flight Research #5 estimated at $4-$6K.  Who knows where her career will wind up, this is still a supa-fly image.

Phillip's

William Eggleston's Near Minter City.. estimated at $20-$30K. Not a vintage print but it will still sell for at least $40K.
Andreas Gursky's Syring estimated at $8-$12K.  Not mega-sized but still an "A" image and one of my favorite Gursky's.
Candida Hofer's Museum für Angewandte... estimated at $4-$6K.  Although I can't necessarily describe what makes a Hofer "right", this is one of those "right" ones.
Vanessa Beecroft's VB42 estimated at $20-$30K. Someone puuuhhhleeeese buy this for me. 
Philip-Lorca Dicorcia's Brian estimated at $25-$35K. one of the great images by one of the great photographers of our time.

If you have a picture to add, leave a comment and I'll add it.

I'll post an update on my picks after the auctions end.

99 cent for $1.5 million

Andreas Gursky's great image 99 cent goes on the auction block May 10 at Sotheby's and carries a pre-sale estimate of $1 - $1.5 million.  Although unlikely to eclipse the $2.9 million record set by Edward Steichen in February, a few heated bidders may make this photo the most expensive ever sold.  Interestingly enough, in the recent New York Magazine article about the art market, Gursky is often sited as one artist who's market is unsustainable.  99 cent will be an interesting test of Gursky's staying power.  As for me, I just wanted an excuse to post the image on my blog, but will predict that the piece will sell for over the high estimate.  Size matters: its 11 feet wide and will look great in any hedge fund manager's Tribeca loft.

Its Not A Market Then Is It?

New York Magazine has a mildly interesting story on why the art market can't crash and points out that it probably will anyway.

Of course, if a market can't crash, its not a market then is it?  The article actually has some insightful reasons as to why the art market will likely stay robust for some time and its definitely worth a read.

By the way, the article lists three artists who likely will survive the next crash: John Baldessari, Takashi Murakami and Thomas Ruff.

New Photography Explored at Artinfo.com

An interesting article appeared recently on the excellent art site, Artinfo about the exploding interest in new photography.  I like the site because of the massive amount of content...its an art lover's paradise.  The article is especially fascinating because they interviewed me.  As you see, I write better than I speak.